Tariffs. War. Chaos. So Why Is Almost Every Stock Market Up?
When I researched the performance of global stock markets, I expected a much grimmer picture. I spend my days helping companies expand internationally, and the conversations I’ve been having with clients and partners around the world recently have been full of anxiety: tariffs, supply chain rewiring, the Iran war, energy costs, recession talk. The mood in global business has been cautious at best. So, when these numbers from a variety of sources came up, the result genuinely surprised me. Almost every major market is up and some dramatically.
The chart above shows percentage change from January 1, 2025, through last Friday, May 15, 2026. The sources of this information are shown at the end of this post.
The Story Behind the Numbers
The Nikkei 225 is the clear winner being up nearly 54%. Japan’s story over this period is a structural one: corporate governance reforms that have been building for years are producing real earnings improvements, and a weaker yen has made Japanese exporters fiercely competitive.
Canada’s TSX at nearly 39% is the quiet surprise. Canada is a commodity-heavy market, and between energy sector strength driven by the Iran war and a materials sector that has performed well globally, the TSX has outperformed Wall Street’s flagship index by a wide margin.
The Nasdaq’s 38% reflects where the real US growth story has lived: AI and technology. The S&P 500 at 26% is solid, and historically strong, but not the headline.
Hong Kong at 32% reflects a Chinese tech recovery from the regulatory lows of 2022–2023. The FTSE 100 at nearly 25% is the European standout, but don’t read that as confidence in the UK economy. The FTSE is heavily weighted toward energy and mining which are sectors that have benefited directly from the Iran war’s impact on oil prices.
India is the lone loser at -3.7%. The economy is growing. The stock market is not. Valuations going into 2025 were simply too stretched.
The Bottom Line: Markets have treated tariffs, wars, and chaos as problems that eventually resolve. So far, that bet has paid off. But what will be the future given that we live in ‘excessively interesting times’?
Sources
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) S&P 500 Daily Close:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) Nikkei 225 Daily Close
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225
Yahoo Finance Stock Market News May 15, 2026 (Zacks):
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-news-may-15-092100519.html
Yahoo Finance World Indices (May 15, 2026)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/ and https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/markets/world-indices/
StatMuse — S&P 500 Close January 2, 2025
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask?q=s%26p+jan+2+2025
Trading Economics — US Stock Market / Japan Stock Market (May 15, 2026) —
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market and https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market
Trading Economics: Canada TSX (May 15, 2026)
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/stock-market
TSX Daily Trading Report for January 5, 2026
https://www.tsx.com/files/trading/daily-trading-report/Daily_Trading_Report_2026-01-05.pdf
Ycharts: S&P/TSX Composite Index Annual Returns
https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ETSX
Advisor Perspectives / dshort World Markets Watchlist
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/29/world-markets-watchlist-december-29-2025